The World Steel Association (WISA) has released its short-term steel demand forecast for 2021 ~2022. The world Steel Association forecasts that global steel demand will grow 4.5 percent to 1.8554 million tons in 2021, after growing 0.1 percent in 2020. In 2022, global steel demand will continue to grow by 2.2 percent to 1,896.4 million tons. As global vaccination efforts accelerate, WISA believes that the spread of novel Coronavirus variants will no longer cause the same disruption as previous waves of COVID-19.
In 2021, the repeated impact of recent waves of COVID-19 on economic activity in advanced economies has been reduced by tougher lockdown measures. But the recovery is being undermined, among other things, by a lagging service sector. In 2022, the recovery will be stronger as pent-up demand continues to be unleashed and business and consumer confidence strengthens. Steel demand in developed economies is expected to grow by 12.2% in 2021 after falling by 12.7% in 2020, and by 4.3% in 2022 to reach pre-epidemic levels.
In the United States, the economy continues to recover steadily, driven by the unleashing of pent-up demand and a strong policy response, with real GDP levels already surpassing the peak reached in the second quarter of 2021. A shortage of some components is hurting steel demand, which had been buoyed by strong recoveries in auto manufacturing and durable goods. With the end of the residential boom and weakness in non-residential construction, the momentum of construction in the United States is waning. The recovery in oil prices is supporting a recovery in investment in the US energy sector. The world Steel Association said there would be more upside potential for steel demand if U.S. President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan is approved by Congress, but the actual effect would not be felt until late 2022.
Despite repeated waves of COVID-19 in the EU, all steel industries are showing positive recovery. The recovery in steel demand, which began in the second half of 2020, is gathering pace as the EU steel industry recovers. The recovery in German steel demand is strongly supported by buoyant exports. Buoyant exports have helped the country's manufacturing sector shine. However, the recovery in steel demand in the country has lost momentum due to supply chain disruptions, particularly in the car industry. The recovery in steel demand in the country will benefit from a relatively high growth rate in construction in 2022 as the manufacturing sector has a large backlog of orders. Italy, which was hardest hit by COVID-19 among EU countries, is recovering faster than the rest of the bloc, with a strong recovery in construction. Several steel industries in the country, such as construction and home appliances, are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021.